Price movements in Dubai’s residential real estate market continued to ease in December, with a second consecutive month of marginal declines following the peak levels seen earlier in the year. The Property Monitor Dynamic Price Index (DPI) slipped by 0.17% month-on-month, after a 0.42% dip in November, bringing average prices to AED 1,673 per square foot. These small adjustments signal a cooling in monthly price movements rather than a change in overall direction. Values remain more than double their December 2020 low and continue to sit above the previous market high recorded in 2014. The latest data suggests the market is entering a phase of consolidation, with pricing becoming increasingly sensitive as activity normalizes at elevated levels.
A total of 18,575 sales transactions were recorded in December, representing a 2.1% month-on-month decline from November. Even with this modest pullback, December closed as the strongest December on record, capping a year defined by consistently elevated transaction volumes. With the exception of October—the only calendar month in 2025 not to establish a new monthly high—every other month delivered record activity, highlighting the resilience of buyer demand despite higher prices and more measured market conditions. Residential transactions continued to dominate market activity, accounting for 93.3% of total sales (17,321 transactions) across apartments, townhouses, and villas. Commercial transactions remained comparatively limited, led by office spaces (2.9%), followed by vacant land (1.1%) and retail units (0.9%), maintaining a broadly unchanged composition relative to prior month.
Across 2025, a total of 215,458 sales transactions were recorded, representing an 18.9% year-on-year increase from 2024. Residential assets continued to underpin market activity, accounting for 93.9% of all transactions, broadly in line with the prior year. Growth was led by apartments (+21.7%) and villas (+20.5%), with much of this expansion driven by off-plan activity, where under-construction units significantly outperformed completed properties. Townhouses saw more modest gains (+6.6%), reflecting a more balanced split between new and completed supply. Commercial activity also strengthened, most notably in the office market, where transaction volumes rose by 53.6%, supported by sustained demand amid a continued undersupply of quality inventory.
Off-plan activity strengthened as the year ended, with 13,039 Oqood transactions recorded in December, up 1.8% month-on-month following a slight dip in November. This lifted the off-plan share of total transactions to 70.2%, an increase of 2.7% from November. While Oqood registrations typically capture off-plan activity, a portion of villa and townhouse sales are registered by the Dubai Land Department as Title Deed transactions—classified as completed properties despite effectively being off-plan. After adjusting for this technical classification effect, the true off-plan share rises to 73.3% in December. By contrast, Title Deed transactions continued to ease, with their market share declining to 29.8%, extending the softening observed throughout the year. Overall, the data points to a renewed skew toward off-plan transactions, reinforcing the role of new development sales as the primary driver of market activity as 2025 closed.
Meanwhile, resale transactions—defined as any subsequent sale of a property after its initial sale by the developer, whether that first sale was off-plan or completed—totaled 5,233 transactions in December, down 1.8% month-on-month, with resale activity accounting for 28.2% of total market transactions. Off-plan resales accounted for 21.7% of all resale transactions in December, marginally higher than in November. However, the 12-month rolling average continued to decline to 24.5%, remaining well below the peak levels seen earlier in the year. This sustained downward trend points to lengthening holding periods and reduced flipping activity compared to earlier in the cycle, indicating that a greater proportion of buyers are holding assets for longer rather than exiting quickly into the resale market, even as initial developer sales remain robust.
Dubai’s new project pipeline remained highly active through December, with 37 launches introducing 10,029 residential units at an estimated value of AED 30.2 billion. Apartments continued to dominate monthly supply, accounting for 93.4% of launched units and 61.0% of total value, while villas represented a smaller share by volume (6.6% but a disproportionately higher share of value with (39.0%).
On a full-year basis, 2025 marked an unprecedented expansion in development activity, with 648 project launches bringing to market over 167K units valued at approximately AED 463 billion—equivalent to a new launch every 13.5 hours. A total of 258 developers launched projects during the year, representing a 40% year-on-year increase from 2024 and highlighting the continued broadening of supply-side participation. Apartments remained the backbone of new supply (88.8% of units), though villas and townhouses accounted for a growing share of total launch value, reflecting sustained demand for higher-ticket, lower-density product. Compared to 2024, which saw 481 project launches and just over 145K units valued at AED 360.1 billion, the scale and pace of development in 2025 underscore the market’s shift into a structurally higher supply cycle, particularly within the apartment-led off-plan segment.
Mortgage activity dropped sharply in December, registering 3,612 loans, a 19.8% month-on-month decrease, following the 7.9% decline recorded in November. New purchase mortgages accounted for 51.7% of transactions, up 5.2% from November, with an average loan size of AED 1.83 million and an average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 73.4%. Refinancing and equity release loans increased to a 40.4% share (up 0.7%), while bulk mortgages declined to 7.9% of total activity. The 286 bulk loans recorded were concentrated across a small number of projects, most notably Portfolio Mortgage Registration at Ramada Residences by Wyndham (110) in Dubai Healthcare City 2 and Building 256, Mesoamerican Cluster (99) in Discovery Gardens. Digging deeper into the data, the December decline in mortgage activity appears more reflective of transaction mix than changing lending conditions, with relatively supportive mortgage rates and steady demand for completed villas and townhouses offset by softer apartment sales and mortgage volumes.
Reflecting on the trends that shaped 2025, Dubai’s residential market is increasingly characterized by consolidation rather than pure expansion. Price movements have softened modestly in recent months, transactional volumes remain historically elevated, and buyer behavior has become more selective. This shift reflects a market that has moved beyond its rapid growth phase and is now adjusting to scale, depth, and maturity rather than exhibiting signs of structural weakness.
While headline transaction volumes remain strong, the composition of activity is evolving. Off-plan sales continue to dominate, driven by sustained launch activity and developer-led demand, while resale volumes for completed property—particularly in the single-family segment, where supply remains constrained and price growth appears to have peaked—along with off-plan resales, have moderated as they compete more directly with developer inventory. The data increasingly points to two distinct markets emerging: an off-plan market driven by new supply, launch cadence, and developer pricing strategies, and a completed market shaped by tighter stock, price sensitivity, and more selective buyer behavior.
At the same time, supply-side momentum remains exceptionally strong. The unprecedented volume of launches seen in 2025 reflects developer confidence in medium-term demand, but it also raises important questions around absorption rates as the pipeline continues to build. The next phase of the cycle will be defined less by the pace of launches and more by how effectively new supply is absorbed amid moderating sales velocity and greater price sensitivity.
Looking ahead to 2026, Dubai’s underlying fundamentals remain firmly supportive. Population growth, economic resilience, and the city’s continued appeal as a global investment and lifestyle destination provide a strong foundation for market stability. However, conditions are likely to favor disciplined pricing, differentiated product, and strategic release schedules, as both buyers and developers adjust to a more balanced and competitive environment.
